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#2013442 - 05/12/15 01:05 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
OK, so the league knew the day before the AFC Championship game that there were some suspicions about the balls. You would think, with that knowledge, if they were going to do something they would have made 100% sure they were using calibrated gauges both before and at halftime of the game. Instead, they used cheap, inconsistent gauges you can buy from any Walmart for a couple of bucks, and then don't even make a record of which gauge of two available that they relied on. If anyone should be penalized in this, it should be the NFL for being absolutely clueless on how to conduct a sting operation and ensuing investigation.


If the league knew about it I would have expected them to take charge of the balls to ensure that no funny business takes place as this was a playoff game not a preseason match.
We've found common ground on which we can agree.
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#2013443 - 05/12/15 01:07 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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The appeal process should be fun.


Also...what ever happened to the title of this thread.... frown
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#2013444 - 05/12/15 01:07 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Originally Posted By HappyGilmore

If the gauges were faulty, they would have been faulty for both teams.
They were. Read the report. One thing you have to keep in mind is that the starting point for the Colts balls was higher than the starting point for the Patriots balls. You also have to keep in mind that the Colts balls sat in the warm locker room at halftime for 10 minutes before they were tested.
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#2013445 - 05/12/15 01:07 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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I am sure we agree on a lot her including the incompetence of the NFL.
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#2013446 - 05/12/15 01:08 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
the decrease at halftime is explainable by weather


maybe, maybe not. If the balls were inflated and checked inside a locker room at a high temperature (high relative to outside temps), then yes, there would be some impact, but it would be minimal - less than 1 PSI lost.

But, if they were checked after inflation outside at temps, then there would be no impact, or a negligible amount.

As someone who officiates real football, often in very cold conditions, I can tell you that my experience is a ball pumped up indoors loses less than 5% PSI when taking it outdoors. If pumped up outdoors, then it loses nothing. Inflation amounts are similar, in real football I put 12 PSI in each ball, using my handy gauge that cost a whopping $8...every ball is inflated to 12 PSI, and unless the ball has a leak, they stay at 12 PSI. If there is a leak, it wouldn't drop to 10 PSI and stay there, it would drop to near empty.

although I may go with the ghosts option above
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#2013447 - 05/12/15 01:10 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Pulling people out of the ditc...
Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By HappyGilmore

If the gauges were faulty, they would have been faulty for both teams.
They were. Read the report. One thing you have to keep in mind is that the starting point for the Colts balls was higher than the starting point for the Patriots balls. You also have to keep in mind that the Colts balls sat in the warm locker room at halftime for 10 minutes before they were tested.


in my experience, 10 minutes is not enough time to make a difference
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#2013450 - 05/12/15 01:17 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Originally Posted By HappyGilmore
Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
the decrease at halftime is explainable by weather


maybe, maybe not. If the balls were inflated and checked inside a locker room at a high temperature (high relative to outside temps), then yes, there would be some impact, but it would be minimal - less than 1 PSI lost.

But, if they were checked after inflation outside at temps, then there would be no impact, or a negligible amount.

As someone who officiates real football, often in very cold conditions, I can tell you that my experience is a ball pumped up indoors loses less than 5% PSI when taking it outdoors. If pumped up outdoors, then it loses nothing. Inflation amounts are similar, in real football I put 12 PSI in each ball, using my handy gauge that cost a whopping $8...every ball is inflated to 12 PSI, and unless the ball has a leak, they stay at 12 PSI. If there is a leak, it wouldn't drop to 10 PSI and stay there, it would drop to near empty.

although I may go with the ghosts option above
So the science doesn't matter, then. Here's what the PFT analysis had to say:

Quote:
As those of you who were visiting PFT frequently in the early days of #DeflateGate may recall, the Ideal Gas Law refers to the formula that determines the changes in gases based on various factors, including but not limited to volume, pressure, and temperature. And the Wells report concludes that all Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 PSI at halftime.

But that observation hinges on the question of which gauge was used to set the PSI prior to kickoff. If the gauge that generates the higher numbers was used, the measurements of the Patriots footballs taken by that gauge are mostly consistent with the 11.52-11.32 PSI range at halftime: (1) 11.8; (2) 11.2; (3) 11.5; (4) 11.0; (5) 11.45; (6) 11.95; (7) 12.3; (8) 11.55; (9) 11.35; (10) 10.9; and (11) 11.35.

Based on those readings, three of the footballs were above the predicted range, five were in the predicted range, and three were below the predicted range.

By assuming that the gauge that generates the lower readings was used before the game began, the readings taken by that same gauge at halftime show that one ball was above the predicted range, two were in the predicted range, and eight were below the predicted range. Which is more consistent with the conclusion that some degree of tampering occurred.

So, basically, the scientific proof of tampering hinges on a literal coin flip between the pressure gauge that generated a higher reading and the pressure gauge that generated a lower reading. Apart from the very real problems inherent to the NFL using pressure gauges that generate such dramatically different readings for a key postseason game, the justification used to assume that Walt Anderson used before kickoff the gauge that makes tampering more likely doesn’t feel like the outcome of a scientific experiment. It feels like an effort to work backward to justify a predetermined conclusion.
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#2013458 - 05/12/15 01:36 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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That quote was as fake as the quotes against him prior to the we;;s report (Not meaning your post was fake just the hoopla in the press prior to the actual report)

Each of the eleven
Patriots balls tested at halftime measured below the minimum 12.5 psi level
established by the Playing Rules on both gauges. Each of the four Colts balls
tested measured within the permissible 12.5 to 13.5 psi range on at least one of
the gauges. The

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/201...-championsh.pdf
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#2013488 - 05/12/15 02:23 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Way, way south.
Happy is exactly right. The Patriots bend the rules and this time they got caught. NFL did what they term an "investigation" and I believe they left it intentionally vague just to protect their cash making machine. They'll dish out their punishment and everything will go back to the same. So maybe the Pats come out 2/4 or even 1/4, they still have a shot at the playoffs and life moves on.
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#2013489 - 05/12/15 02:25 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Pulling people out of the ditc...
so if I read the "science" behind the PFT point you posted, either way they had too many balls under inflated at halftime...be it 3 or 8...

not sure i'm understanding the point you are trying to make. Maybe that they cheated but not as much as the NFL claims?
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#2013496 - 05/12/15 02:37 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Let me get this straight.

Patriots are fined $1 Mil.

Brady sits, saving Patriots $2 Mil in salary.

Patriots are up $1 Mil, and they have a fresh, healthy quarterback for the Colts game.

How did they get penalized?
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#2013499 - 05/12/15 02:42 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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My point is that there are flaws to the data so you don't get to pick and choose which parts of the data you believe. So let's say that deliberate deflation did occur. If you accept that Walt Coleman says every single Patriots ball was at 12.5 before the game, and if you accept that weather causes the pressure to drop in all of the balls, to an scientifically expected 11.5 - 11.32 range, how do you explain the 12.3 psi ball? Was Coleman wrong? Was at least one ball over 12.5 to start the game? Did McNally add air to that particular ball? Or is it possible that the whole process of checking pressure before the game and checking pressure at halftime was so filled with flaws that it invalidates all of the pressure data?
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#2013500 - 05/12/15 02:42 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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Originally Posted By HappyGilmore
so if I read the "science" behind the PFT point you posted, either way they had too many balls under inflated at halftime...be it 3 or 8...

not sure i'm understanding the point you are trying to make. Maybe that they cheated but not as much as the NFL claims?



Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested
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#2013501 - 05/12/15 02:44 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) MyBrainHurts
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Originally Posted By MyBrainHurts
Let me get this straight.

Patriots are fined $1 Mil.

Brady sits, saving Patriots $2 Mil in salary.

Patriots are up $1 Mil, and they have a fresh, healthy quarterback for the Colts game.

How did they get penalized?
How many games do they lose while Brady sits? What impact on the long-term strength of the team do the forfeited draft picks have?
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#2013502 - 05/12/15 02:44 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
My point is that there are flaws to the data so you don't get to pick and choose which parts of the data you believe. So let's say that deliberate deflation did occur. If you accept that Walt Coleman says every single Patriots ball was at 12.5 before the game, and if you accept that weather causes the pressure to drop in all of the balls, to an scientifically expected 11.5 - 11.32 range, how do you explain the 12.3 psi ball? Was Coleman wrong? Was at least one ball over 12.5 to start the game? Did McNally add air to that particular ball? Or is it possible that the whole process of checking pressure before the game and checking pressure at halftime was so filled with flaws that it invalidates all of the pressure data?


My point would be why would you allow a team to have the opportunity to adjust the balls? (just because Brady and Manning requested it?)
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#2013503 - 05/12/15 02:45 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By MyBrainHurts
Let me get this straight.

Patriots are fined $1 Mil.

Brady sits, saving Patriots $2 Mil in salary.

Patriots are up $1 Mil, and they have a fresh, healthy quarterback for the Colts game.

How did they get penalized?
How many games do they lose while Brady sits? What impact on the long-term strength of the team do the forfeited draft picks have?


the more games they lose the better the next draft pick is.
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#2013504 - 05/12/15 02:46 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
Originally Posted By HappyGilmore
so if I read the "science" behind the PFT point you posted, either way they had too many balls under inflated at halftime...be it 3 or 8...

not sure i'm understanding the point you are trying to make. Maybe that they cheated but not as much as the NFL claims?



Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested


and why was the fact that the colts test one only now coming to light?
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#2013506 - 05/12/15 02:48 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested
Wells report could have said with equal accuracy "3 of 11 balls tested were below the expected range on one of the gauges used". Which quote produces more emotional buy-in to the desired outcome conclusion when combined with other circumstantial evidence?
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#2013507 - 05/12/15 02:49 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By edAudit
Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested
Wells report could have said with equal accuracy "3 of 11 balls tested were below the expected range on one of the gauges used". Which quote produces more emotional buy-in to the desired outcome conclusion when combined with other circumstantial evidence?


so then at least 8 we can say?
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#2013509 - 05/12/15 02:50 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
the more games they lose the better the next draft pick is.
Which said draft pick is forfeited, so what does it matter how good it is? The short term penalty against the Patriots is possible losses. The long term penalty against the Patriots is lost draft picks, made worse by the fact that with the losses, those picks would have been higher picks.
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#2013511 - 05/12/15 02:51 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By edAudit
Wells report claims 11 of 12 as they did not count the one that the Colts tested
Wells report could have said with equal accuracy "3 of 11 balls tested were below the expected range on one of the gauges used". Which quote produces more emotional buy-in to the desired outcome conclusion when combined with other circumstantial evidence?


so then at least 8 we can say?
Or you could say "only 3". Why choose to only say one of the possible outcomes (which by the way is the one that supports your conclusions)?
Last edited by BeechFlyboy; 05/12/15 02:54 PM.
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#2013513 - 05/12/15 02:52 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By edAudit
the more games they lose the better the next draft pick is.
Which said draft pick is forfeited, so what does it matter how good it is? The short term penalty against the Patriots is possible losses. The long term penalty against the Patriots is lost draft picks, made worse by the fact that with the losses, those picks would have been higher picks.


They could pick a Johnny football or a Ryan leaf so draft picks are really an unknown. Why did the report come out days after the current draft?
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#2013515 - 05/12/15 02:53 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) edAudit
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Originally Posted By edAudit
Why did the report come out days after the current draft?
Because the NFL is incompetent.
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#2013518 - 05/12/15 02:54 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) RVFlyboy
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Originally Posted By BeechFlyboy
Originally Posted By edAudit
Why did the report come out days after the current draft?
Because the NFL is incompetent.


That would be the reason that they let Manning and Brady dictate the stupid rule in the first place.
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#2013519 - 05/12/15 02:57 PM Re: More NFL Cheaters (not the Patriots this time) HappyGilmore
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new rule as per me

NFL pumps up the balls using 1 gauge to 13.0 t/- .1 out of the box from Wilson and hands it to the on field official.

Here you go play ball. Same ball(s) for kicking teams.
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