If his taxes and/or insurance increased at all throughout the year, the payment will increase regardless of how much is currently in the escrow account. The payment is determined by adding all of your expected disbursements for the year and dividing by 12. In regards to the escrow refund, if you look at the escrow analysis projections for the coming year, it will show you what the required beginning balance is so that the escrow account balance does not ever fall below the cushion, if applicable, after any projected disbursement is made. I'm assuming the balance needed is $593 less than what you currently have. Since you have more than a $50 surplus, it is required to be refunded to the borrower. This is the super condensed version, but hopefully it helps.