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#713640 - 04/09/07 08:08 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
straw Offline
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How about the Europeans actually impose economic sanctions? That falls under the soft power that Europeans value so heavily.

Europe makes up a significant percentage of Iran's trade, including most of it's gas. (Iran has no refining capacity, so imports its gas)

Or we can just laugh, humor them, throw our hands up and say what else can we do.

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#713673 - 04/09/07 08:35 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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Quote:
How about the Europeans actually impose economic sanctions?

maybe they don't for "good cop, bad cop" purposes?

Quote:
including most of it's gas.

isn't that tantamount to a declaration of war? i think that kind of action would be pretty galvanizing.

Quote:
Or we can just laugh, humor them, throw our hands up and say what else can we do.

i don't think diplomacy is this.

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#713679 - 04/09/07 08:39 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Quote:
Quote:
including most of it's gas.

isn't that tantamount to a declaration of war? i think that kind of action would be pretty galvanizing.



In contrast with capturing British soldiers in Iraqi waters.

Quote:
Quote:
Or we can just laugh, humor them, throw our hands up and say what else can we do.

i don't think diplomacy is this.



Sorry, perhaps they could issue another statement condemning actions, this time saying the actions are condemned in the strongest of terms.

That'll get the Mullahs attention.

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#713690 - 04/09/07 08:50 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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In contrast with capturing British soldiers in Iraqi waters.

do you think the iranians would be as level-headed? we've already acknowledged a double-standard. since you are bent on war, this is meaningless to you, but if we want to make progress without WW3, we have to be delicate; show them that we aren;t the evil empire (the west) tryingto colonize them.

Quote:
Sorry, perhaps they could issue another statement condemning actions, this time saying the actions are condemned in the strongest of terms.

or maybe we can look at the britons situation as the crack in their armor that we can sunder into a chasm.

or we can invade like you think is theonly alternative.

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#713692 - 04/09/07 08:55 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
In contrast with capturing British soldiers in Iraqi waters.

do you think the iranians would be as level-headed? we've already acknowledged a double-standard. since you are bent on war, this is meaningless to you, but if we want to make progress without WW3, we have to be delicate; show them that we aren;t the evil empire (the west) tryingto colonize them.

Quote:
Sorry, perhaps they could issue another statement condemning actions, this time saying the actions are condemned in the strongest of terms.

or maybe we can look at the britons situation as the crack in their armor that we can sunder into a chasm.

or we can invade like you think is theonly alternative.



Sadly Ron, I think you reflect most people's thinking and I don't think it bodes well for the future.

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#713699 - 04/09/07 09:00 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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uncle!!! let's just invade already! i mean, after all, diplomacy from my point of view means establishing a shia caliphate worldwide and aiding them in vaporizing israel.

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#713725 - 04/09/07 09:33 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Iran is testing the effects of the world economy in the event economic sanctions are levied against them. In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

With that in mind, how would economic sanctions prevent them from making weapons grade uranium? It would hurt us more than them and that was the point they were trying to make.

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#713739 - 04/09/07 10:27 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran BotV#6
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Originally Posted By: Impulse
Iran is testing the effects of the world economy in the event economic sanctions are levied against them. In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

With that in mind, how would economic sanctions prevent them from making weapons grade uranium? It would hurt us more than them and that was the point they were trying to make.


Iran's gas supply is held hostage to trade, much like they hold world oil prices hostage.

We have leverage we can bring to bear if we (the West) choose to do so. Just need the will.

Instead, we will appease further, hoping for peace at all costs, which will only lead to war, at a much greater cost than is otherwise necessary.

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#713754 - 04/09/07 11:24 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran BotV#6
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In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

can you link to support for this assertion? thanks

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#713755 - 04/09/07 11:29 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Instead, we will appease further, hoping for peace at all costs, which will only lead to war, at a much greater cost than is otherwise necessary.

how else can we effectively promote a shia caliphate?

are you saying we don't have any sort of legitimate santions on iran? i think we can afford to turn up some leverage if we don't.

but i know you are going to say i am talking out of 2 sides of my mouth. straw, just because i say we have to treat them with kid gloves in some respects doesn't mean we stop hamstringing their economy in the articles i pasted and in what i've said, the important thing to remember is that the pragmatists don't want to cut of their nose to spite their face. don't try to act like i've suggested that we let them have their cake and eat it, too.

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#713802 - 04/10/07 12:50 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
hmm, if you say it, it must be true! when i was there, it seemed to be turning into a caliphate :rolls eyes:


No Sharia here! After all, we're French, and the French don't take no Sharia off nobody!!!

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#713808 - 04/10/07 01:08 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

can you link to support for this assertion? thanks


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/070406iranoil.aspx

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#713931 - 04/10/07 02:50 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
Instead, we will appease further, hoping for peace at all costs, which will only lead to war, at a much greater cost than is otherwise necessary.

how else can we effectively promote a shia caliphate?

are you saying we don't have any sort of legitimate santions on iran? i think we can afford to turn up some leverage if we don't.

but i know you are going to say i am talking out of 2 sides of my mouth. straw, just because i say we have to treat them with kid gloves in some respects doesn't mean we stop hamstringing their economy in the articles i pasted and in what i've said, the important thing to remember is that the pragmatists don't want to cut of their nose to spite their face. don't try to act like i've suggested that we let them have their cake and eat it, too.


Earlier you said that cutting off gas supply would be an act of war. Now you are saying it is okay to turn up the leverage.

Not being snide Ron, (truly not, but when you figure out what your opinion is, I will be more than happy to continue the discussion.

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#713934 - 04/10/07 02:52 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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Earlier you said that cutting off gas supply would be an act of war. Now you are saying it is okay to turn up the leverage.

so you don't see a distinction between ratcheting up general economic pressure and cutting off the gas supply?

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#713937 - 04/10/07 02:53 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran BotV#6
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Originally Posted By: Impulse
Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

can you link to support for this assertion? thanks


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/070406iranoil.aspx

i didn't see the direct correlation to the $.20 at the pump increase in the article though i only skimmed it.

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#713938 - 04/10/07 02:54 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
Earlier you said that cutting off gas supply would be an act of war. Now you are saying it is okay to turn up the leverage.

so you don't see a distinction between ratcheting up general economic pressure and cutting off the gas supply?


No Ron, I really don't. You see distinctions I don't see. These are degrees. If cutting the gas supply is an act of war, so are all economic sanctions.

You can't say that gas is really important so cutting it constitutes an act of war, but bananas are not important, so you can stop trade on that.

International law doesn't work that way.

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#713939 - 04/10/07 02:55 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Jokerman
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Originally Posted By: -J-
Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
hmm, if you say it, it must be true! when i was there, it seemed to be turning into a caliphate :rolls eyes:


No Sharia here! After all, we're French, and the French don't take no Sharia off nobody!!!

i'm sure that is why le pen and sarkozy are gaining in the polls.

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#713943 - 04/10/07 02:57 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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If cutting the gas supply is an act of war, so are all economic sanctions.

ok straw.

Quote:
You can't say that gas is really important so cutting it constitutes an act of war, but bananas are not important, so you can stop trade on that.

is that shovel getting heavy yet?

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#713948 - 04/10/07 03:00 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Originally Posted By: Impulse
Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
In the few days they held Brits, Iran made approximately $167 million in oil causing the gas prices to jump around $.20 plus here.

can you link to support for this assertion? thanks


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/070406iranoil.aspx

i didn't see the direct correlation to the $.20 at the pump increase in the article though i only skimmed it.


Sorry Ron, I don't have the time to find those articles, but this site show give a good illustration.

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/gasprices/states/index.shtml

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#713977 - 04/10/07 03:26 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
straw Offline
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
If cutting the gas supply is an act of war, so are all economic sanctions.

ok straw.

Quote:
You can't say that gas is really important so cutting it constitutes an act of war, but bananas are not important, so you can stop trade on that.

is that shovel getting heavy yet?




Please explain the distinction then.

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#714387 - 04/11/07 02:34 AM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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without gas, a country literally cannot defend itself. without bananas, they can't eat bananas.

so we turn up the screws and make life more economically difficult or we cut off their supply of gas and they have no choice but to band together to try to sustain life as they know it. if our country had to pay $5/gallon, life would suck and we'd be forced into changes. if we had no gas, the shiite ( pun intended) would hit the fan.

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#714555 - 04/11/07 02:39 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
without gas, a country literally cannot defend itself. without bananas, they can't eat bananas.

so we turn up the screws and make life more economically difficult or we cut off their supply of gas and they have no choice but to band together to try to sustain life as they know it. if our country had to pay $5/gallon, life would suck and we'd be forced into changes. if we had no gas, the shiite ( pun intended) would hit the fan.


Right, you draw the distinction based on impact. Laws and rules cannot change because of the results.

So, in your opinion, sanctions are ok so long as they don't cause too much harm. If they cause too much harm, sanctions are an act of war.

Of course, different countries have different vulnerabilities. For example, cutting off gas trade with Russia would have little impact, as they have their own oil supply and refining capabilities.

So, in your paradigm, a country could cut gas trade with Russia because it would not force Russia into changes (which is the whole point of sanctions by the way). But another product might be more vital to Russia, whose embargo might be an act of war.

Therefore, any sanction could be an act of war and each sanction would have to be evaluated to see if it harmed the sanctioned country too much that it constitutes an act of war.

Does this really make sense to you?

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#714561 - 04/11/07 02:43 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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Therefore, any sanction could be an act of war and each sanction would have to be evaluated to see if it harmed the sanctioned country too much that it constitutes an act of war.

Does this really make sense to you?

now you are finally catching on rather than trying to play "gotcha!" with me. one size does NOT fit all...

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#714564 - 04/11/07 02:45 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran Hated By Some
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Originally Posted By: Ron Mexico
Quote:
Therefore, any sanction could be an act of war and each sanction would have to be evaluated to see if it harmed the sanctioned country too much that it constitutes an act of war.

Does this really make sense to you?

now you are finally catching on rather than trying to play "gotcha!" with me. one size does NOT fit all...


How do you have rule of law then? How can you craft an international system where the players know the rules, what is acceptable, what is not, and how is it enforced?

Not being snide, but this is similar to how you analyze laws for Constitutionality. Result driven rules are inherently arbitrary. Can you see what I am saying?

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#714573 - 04/11/07 02:56 PM Re: It All May Have Backfired on Iran straw
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straw, i do not know the international law rules that deal with this precise issue. but if they do not allow for individualized sanctions, i think they need to be rewritten; if they are "one size fits all" i think that is absolutely absurd.

what is acceptable? make iran change how they act in theinternational community. this includes NOT making them more insular. so, have the punishment be effective for THEM. not what would be effective for guatemala.

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