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#955411 - 05/07/08 01:38 PM
do the dems actually get it?
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Pulling people out of the ditc...
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So I was listening to a super-delagate who was being interviewed today on BBC (love that XM radio), and he was opining on how McCain only garned 75% of the vote in NC, and that the turnout was poor on the republican side. He was going on about how this is so great for the democrats.
I guess he didn't stop to think that since McCain is a lock for the republican nomination that smart republicans saw no reason to go to the primary to vote for the person who has already locked the nomination in.
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#955414 - 05/07/08 01:40 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
HappyGilmore
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under the Lone Star
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one word - Rush
one phrase - Operation Chaos
one other thought - crossovers
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#955415 - 05/07/08 01:41 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Pale Rider
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My answer is No.
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#955422 - 05/07/08 01:47 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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Its over for this country if Obama is elected.
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#955424 - 05/07/08 01:48 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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No, they don't get it!
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#955428 - 05/07/08 01:52 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Bimmer
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what I don't get is how you can say something is over, when I cant see a clear cut choice in the popular vote
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#955429 - 05/07/08 01:53 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Pale Rider
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Jersey Shore
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one word - Rush
one phrase - Operation Chaos
Quoth Mr. Limbaugh: "The dream end of this [of Operation Chaos] is that this keeps up to the convention, and that we have a recreation of Chicago 1968 with burning cars, protests, fire, and literal riots and all of that, that is the objective here." Yep, he's a standard bearer all right....
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#955432 - 05/07/08 01:54 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Hrothgar Geiger
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I am betting on the Clintons pulling something out of their bag o' tricks...
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#955433 - 05/07/08 01:56 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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According to what I just read onthe DNC page it will be decided in Aug. Just to let you know
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#955434 - 05/07/08 01:57 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Hrothgar Geiger
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under the Lone Star
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one word - Rush
one phrase - Operation Chaos
Quoth Mr. Limbaugh: "The dream end of this [of Operation Chaos] is that this keeps up to the convention, and that we have a recreation of Chicago 1968 with burning cars, protests, fire, and literal riots and all of that, that is the objective here." Yep, he's a standard bearer all right.... operatives do this most election cycles when circumstances provide the opportunity, no? you certainly have to admit this is one of the more effective operations
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#955435 - 05/07/08 01:58 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
kms
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what I don't get is how you can say something is over, when I cant see a clear cut choice in the popular vote *** The game-changer: In a way, Clinton turned out to be prescient when she said that the North Carolina and Indiana contests would be a game-changer in the race for the Democratic nomination. What changed, however, was the story that Obama -- even though leading by every metric -- was on the defensive after losing Pennsylvania and after weeks of Jeremiah Wright and “bitter.” But in winning North Carolina last night, his margin of victory (more than 230,000) was even larger than the amount that Clinton won Pennsylvania by (about 215,000). In fact, when you combine Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana and Obama’s much larger one in the Tar Heel State, he ALMOST netted more votes than Clinton obtained from Pennsylvania. In short, we’re right back to where we were on April 21, and that’s something that won’t be lost among Democratic superdelegates, especially after two weeks dominated by Wright.
*** The new math: Another thing that last night did was kill the Clinton’s campaign’s two best talking points. First, the popular vote: After last night, Obama now leads Clinton by more than 700,000 (16,050,924 vs. 15,336,896). When you include Florida, Obama leads by 419,256, and when you include both Florida and Michigan (and don’t give Obama “uncommitted”), his lead is 90,947. And here's what's left in our pop vote simulator Total votes Clinton Obama Split WV: 400,000 240,000 160,000 60-40 KY: 500,000 300,000 200,000 60-40 OR: 600,000 270,000 330,000 45-55 SD: 100,000 45,000 55,000 45-55 MT: 125,000 56,250 68,750 45-55 Totals 911,250 813,750
Under this scenario, Clinton will net 97,500 in the remaining contests. So Clinton can win the popular vote if you count Florida and Michigan, but it'll be close and it's just as likely with a bigger than expected win for Obama in Oregon that he can actually win the popular vote even with netting ZERO votes out of Michigan. This shows just how massive both turnout was in North Carolina and the margin of Obama's victory was in the state. Once again, he shows that when he wins a state, he wins big.
*** Mission: Impossible? Second, on the delegate front, if Florida and Michigan were seated as is and Obama got the uncommitted delegates in Michigan, Clinton would net an additional 32 delegates from Florida and 18 from Michigan -- for a total net of 50. So add those numbers into the current pledged delegate count and Obama still would lead in the pledged delegate count by more than 100, approximately 110 in fact. So let's use 110 as the baseline. For Clinton to overtake him in the pledged delegate lead using THEIR math on Florida and Michigan, she'd need to win 75% of all remaining delegates. That's an impossible task. Most importantly, knowing the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee the way we THINK we do, the likelihood of the committee NOT punishing Florida and Michigan in some way (say a cut in half of their delegates a la the Republicans) would then make this FL/MI exercise moot. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/07/989476.aspxI repeat: It is over.
Last edited by Imagine; 05/07/08 01:59 PM.
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#955436 - 05/07/08 01:59 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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Unfortunately for Mr. Limbaugh, this thing will be over by May 20th. you gotta be kiddin' Frank! a 4 or 8 year reign of democrat terror will be the best thing for the Limbaugh show - his program exploded across the airwaves in the 90's
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#955438 - 05/07/08 02:01 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Pale Rider
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Someone mark this thread so that when may 20th comes along and it isn't over, well... I just like to be able to look back on things
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#955443 - 05/07/08 02:07 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
kms
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Someone mark this thread so that when may 20th comes along and it isn't over, well... I just like to be able to look back on things I don't believe it will be over by the 20th either. After all, she just gave her campaign another 6.4 million dollar loan.
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My silence doesn't mean that I agree with you. It's just that your level of ignorance has rendered me speechless.
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#955466 - 05/07/08 02:24 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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Didn't you hear, Obama got injured yesterday and may not be able to continue on the campaign path for a bit.
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#955476 - 05/07/08 02:39 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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personally... i dont think hope is all that audacious
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#955486 - 05/07/08 02:50 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
doobydoobydoo
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admits what? That Obama got hurt yesterday?
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#955493 - 05/07/08 02:55 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
kms
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admits what? That Obama got hurt yesterday? That it is over.
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#955497 - 05/07/08 02:59 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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He concedes?
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#955500 - 05/07/08 03:00 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
Imagine
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Wait until Tony Rezco is convicted, and he starts singing.
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#955505 - 05/07/08 03:05 PM
Re: do the dems actually get it?
kms
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Awww, I get it. You're being cute and funny!
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