Not sure that is correct. Missouri is already ahead of Alabama in, I believe, every computer poll but not in the BCS standings. Alabama would only have to get one more 2nd place vote in the human polls assuming Missouri and Alabama were 2nd or 3rd on all ballots and FSU was a 1st on all ballots.

That is not quite how the BCS calculation works but it does turn out that my logic was flawed. If both had effectively the same score, than one more person in one poll and a tie in the other would give it to team A (or B depending on how you look at it). But since the scores give the net totals AP and Coaches 2/3 of the points, and the remaining 1/3 is the other polls and BCS calculator, if the other polls have team B ahead team A needs quite a few more votes to go ahead in the human polls..... depending on how far behind they are.

But yes I get your point. I did not realize the computers had Alabama ahead. In which case I think they have it right.

The only shot for UA now is for both FSU and tOSU to lose. There is no way voters will put Bama over an equal record conference champion Missouri that had just beaten the number 3 team that beat Bama the week before.

Need Coffee, your bias is showing. If both FSU and tOSU lose and Auburn wins then Auburn goes on, but not rematch with The University, as voters did not like the LSU rematch championship. If Auburn loses and either FSU/OSU loose, then Alabama has a shot. It is not a foregone conclusion that AL goes in, too many 1 loss teams available and many do not want to see a SEC repeat for 7th time.

I probably deep down don't believe Alabama will get in, but this is the final year that this methodology will be the sole judge and jury for determining who gets in the championship game. We are only talking about 130ish combined voters, so a few crazy votes can make a difference. Of course this final vote all the ballots are made public so there it is not much of a chance.

That same logic is why a one loss Auburn or Missouri will not jump and undefeated tOSU. Too many coaches on the poll will look at that and think if my team was undefeated would I want them to be voted 3rd behind a one loss team. The Harris poll is made up of a lot of former coaches and former athletic administrators, as well as a media. FWIW

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Far from it. I would rather see Bama in it than Missouri mainly because 5 in a row from my state would be amazing.

That being said, logic and common sense is showing. There is no way a team that did not represent their own division in the conference championship would jump the conference champion with the same record.

I would not expect a one loss team to jump tOSU. They have earned the number 2 spot up to this point.

I agree, and it is probably semantics but Alabama is already ranked ahead of Missouri, Missouri would do the jumping. Voters would only have to keep the teams in the same order, and there is at least two ocassions 2001ish Nebraska and 2003ish Oklahoma where a team that wasn't a conference champion and in Nebraska's case a division champion, played in the national title game.

And except for the fact that everyone despises Texas and things they do, another reason for leaving Big 12 is that neither team ever had much chance of winning the conference. Not that the SEC would be easier but it just didn't happen.

While true, I don't think they went over their conference winner that had the same, or better, overall record.

Again semantics, but Nebraska was ranked #2 and conference champion Colorado #3 that year in the final BCS ranking before the bowl games. Nebraska did have 1 loss to Colorado's 2 but the BCS calculations at that time were different and I believe there was a reduction in "points" for each loss.

As for Oklahoma, they lost to Kansas St, which had 3 losses so it wasn't close. Oklahoma stayed #1 in the BCS ranking even following the loss.

Again the point was just that Missouri would be jumping Alabama as of now. Also, I agree that it probably wont happen but I wouldn't be totally shocked if somehow Alabama and Florida St are playing for the title.

In 2011 LSU SEC Western Division Champ and SEC Champ played AL the Western Division Runner-up Played a rematch of regular season Game. Alabama lost to LSU 9-6 in overtime in regular season game two week before. The BCS Committee took a beating on that choice.
Now the only way that AL, my favorite Div I team, possibly gets into the BCS Championship is a loss by Auburn and either tOSU or FSU. IMO, the reason they would not get jumped in that scenario is the fact they held the #1 position for the entire season, including the pre-season poll.

'Bama only gets to the NCG under the following (remote) scenario:

1. #20 Duke upsets #1 FSU.
2. #10 MSU knocks off #2 tOSU.
3. #3 AU beats #5 MO.

#3 AU moves to #1; #4 AL moves to #2. AL/AU square off in an all-SEC BCS NCG.

Well well well, tomorrow at 2pm Eastern the results of the state of Florida's investigation into Jamies Winston will be announced.

If charged, FSU has a policy that states athletes that are charged with a felony are suspended. Again IF charged it would have serious implications on the Heisman and this weekends game with Duke, although I don't think Duke could beat FSU even with the backup QB playing. Could be interesting.

True, they did play in the BCS championship game, but it was against the conference champion LSU. This year, you are saying they would be put in the BCS championship game against FSU or tOSU over their own conference champion that has a better record. That does not make any sense.

Missouri is behind Bama right now because Bama lost in a close game against an in-state rival and there is little head-to-head comparison (aTm, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss). If Missouri beats Auburn in the SEC Championship game they will increase the computer lead (due to beating a #3 ranked opponent) and increase votes in the others (beating the team that just beat Bama) and jump them. Logically, the only way Bama is in is if both FSU and tOSU lose. Add in the fact there is SEC, and specifically Bama (see NYT article), fatigue and it makes it even less likely.

Agreed. It would lessen the excitement of the BCS Championship game. tOSU, AU and Missouri would beat FSU without Jameis, IMO.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe Missouri was in the top 3 or 4 in all of the computer polls already. There is only so much manipulation that can be done. If Alabama is currently 4th and if the top 2 teams lose, it would take a pretty good bit of manipulation to get anyone ahead of them.

Florida St losing to Duke would drop them out of the top 2
Ohio St losing would as well,
If Auburn wins, Alabama is moving up because that was the only loss. There is no way Oklahoma St, 2 loss Stanford, Clemson Oregon jump Alabama and no way Michigan St jumps from 10 to 2.

Fatigue or not, if both FSU and tOSU lose Alabama is playing in the championship game.

Jays, all I am saying is that I do not believe the committee will put together a rematch. If all that happens, FSU, Auburn, and tOSU lose, Alabama and FSU play for BCS Championship. In the same vein If Auburn wins and FSU/tOSU lose, Auburn may play FSU.
It is fun to play with all the alternatives, but you never no how the coaches or Harris polls will vote.

I see your logic, and I agree there is SEC/ Alabama fatigue, but there is no committee, it is 2 human polls made up of coaches, former coaches, administrators and media and 6 computer polls.

Secondly, you left Missouri out of every equation you put up there.

Simply put, if FSU and Ohio St lose, the winner of Auburn and Missouri will play Alabama. If Florida St loses, it will be because Winston didn't play. No way the polls keep them in the top two without Winston. If FSU loses with Winston, with that weak schedule, they will fall.

All that said. I don't think both tOSU and FSU lose. So it s probably a mute point, but good for a little discussion and destraction from the daily grind of work.

Yes, it is a good diversion from falling to sleep grinding thru the latest CFPB Reg X/TIL Servicing rules. I did not intentionally leave out Missouri. AL and MZ would be a good matchup but would require the loss by the FSU and tOSU. It may well be a good match up, as they have a good front 4 defensively and a fast offense, which Saban does not like to defend against.

No formal charges of rape against Jameis.

I can't stand Alabama, Florida State, or Ohio State, and I'm not too keen on Auburn, either. Unfortunately, at least one of them will be in the championship game.

Go Missouri Tigers!!!

A team that doesn't win their conference championship game should not be in the National Championship game. That is the problem with polls and computers. Alabama may be the best team, but they didn't prove it on the field. And as mentioned above, Texas A&M and Missouri have proved that the SEC isn't far and away above the other conferences.

I don't necessarily disagree GoBucs, unfortunately I don't see that changing with a committee. Where there will be meetings and discussions and where 1 or 2 votes in a 13 panel group could directly influence who makes the 4 team playoff. Also consider there will be no reliance on AP, Coaches or Harris Poll, no computer polls will be used directly. The vote will not be published nor will it be released regularly.

I don't like the polls, but I like 180 people deciding who gets in better than 13 people deciding.

At least it will be the 5th, 6th and 7th place teams and fans complaining and not the 3rd and 4th. A step in the right direction.

GO BUCKS!!! Beat Sparty!

That's all I have to say about that.